Sunday, February 25, 2007

NHL Trade Deadline Approaching

For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the Pittsburgh Penguins are approaching the NHL trading deadline in a position where they can be buyers instead of selling their top chips to the highest bidder...or at times, *cough* Alexie Kovalev *cough* the lowest bidder.

Even though the deadline is Tuesday, there have already been a fair amount of decent sized moves. Peter Forsberg went from Philly to Nasvhille. Keith Tkachuck and Alexie Zhitnik went to Atlanta. Ladislav Nagy went from Phoenix to Dallas. Anson Carter went to Carolina for a song.

So what could the Penguins use?

In no particular order a top-6 winger and a top-4 defensemen.

There was a report out of Phoenix this week that the Penguins were close to acquiring Georges Laraque which just seems kind of silly. The Penguins already have excellent third and fourth lines and Laraque serves no purpose as a top-6 forward. The cries for "protection" for Crosby and Malkin are misplaced. King Georges will never set skate on the ice at the same time as those two guys, or he shouldn't anyway.

The only real redeeming aspect of those talks were the reports that General Manager Ray Shero might be trying to get defensemen Nick Boynton included. Who would actually make quite a bit of sense, unlike Larouque.

A legitimate top-6 winger to play along side Sid could do a great deal of good as well. Lets face it, Ryan Malone and Michel Oullet are not going to cut it in the playoffs as top-6 forwards. He may be a rental, but Bill Guerin, who is having a fantastic season on a terrible team, could be a perfect fit on that top line for a potential playoff run. I know there are a lot of calls for the Pens to "stay the course" (whatever that means) and not mortgage their future for this season but I can't fully agree with that. To me, that seems like a complacent loser strategy that is just going to lead to nothing but losing.

I'm not asking for the Penguins to deal a guy like Staal or Whitney or a young player like that (because that would be downright silly at this point) but it wouldn't hurt to trade a first round pick or a prospect for a guy to help push you over that playoff hump - because we haven't qualified yet - and help you make some noise in the NHL's second season.

You've put yourself into a situation where you are the number four seed (or the number five seed now I think?) in the Eastern Conference with a number of games in hand on a lot of teams. If you have a chance to add a piece you owe it yourself to go for it.

Breaking Down The NL Central: This Division Is Boring

Nothing about this division is exciting, sure it has the defending world champs who also happen to have the best player in baseball, but even they are boring. They won 83 games last year, snuck into the playoffs with a season that would have been well short of post-season play in any other year and somehow, someway, managed to win it all. They return this season with Kip Wells in their rotation, Jim Edmonds one year older and Preston Wilson still being Preston Wilson - which is bad.

I just can't picture this year being any different. Every single team, including the champs, is flawed in some serious way. It could be another year where a mid-80's win total takes the division. Which of course means potentially big things for....well....everyone.

The Reds picked up career years, or surprisingly strong performances, from a lot of guys last season - Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg - and still couldn't do better than 80 wins. Such a feat is outdone only by our beloved Bucs who boasted the National League batting champion and a top five outfielder and still managed to finish in the bottom five in runs scored.

I know we want to believe this every season, and it might still be crazy to think about, but with the way this division is currently constructed it seems like anybody could rattle some cages raise some hell.

Sure, the Astros spent big money on Carlos Lee, and yeah they still have Lance Berkman...but Jason Jennings is their #2 starter. The Cardinals have a ring, but they are for the most part a two man team - three man team if Rolen is healthy and speaking to his manager, who nobody really wants to speak too. Chris Duncan had a nice season, but is he really that good? Will he improve or level off as a Craig Wilson clone?

The Cubs spent more money than some small governments but they spent it on a bunch of league average guys, or in the case of Mark Derosa...guys that stink. And their pitching staffs collective rotator cuff is hanging on by a thread.

Nobody in this division scares me.Everyone has serious questions. I see nobody running away with it and I could see anybody taking it. Even if it is like last season where someone gets it by default.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Breaking Down The NL Central: Part Three

Baseball season is almost here and all week I'll be offering my meaningless take on the five other teams in the Pirates division.

Todays Team: The Houston Astros
Last Years Record:
82-80 (Second Place NL Central)
Manager:
Phil Garner (Third season in Houston)
Off-season Additions:
Carlos Lee (Free agent), Jason Jennings (Trade), Mark Loretta (Free Agent), Woody Williams (Free Agent)
Projected Starters:
C: Brad Ausmus, 1B: Morgan Ensberg, 2B: Craig Biggio, SS: Adam Everett, 3B: Chris Burke, LF: Carlos Lee, CF: ????, RF: Lance Berkman

A year after representing the National League in the World Series, the Astros found themselves struggling to stay above .500 in the always hilarious National League Central. Heading into 2007, the Astros could once again stumble. Gone are Andy Pettite and long time Astros legend Jeff Bagwell while Roger Clemens future again heads toward another Brett Favre-like soap opera.

A couple weeks ago Clemens claimed that he was "80-20" that he would be retiring, but then followed that up by saying something along the lines of "well, if someone stubs a toe in May and someone calls with the right offer, I'll have to look at it."

In other words: I don't want to go through the daily grind of spring training and I'll just show up around May because I'm Roger Clemens. This now yearly soap opera, combined with the fact he no longer travels on road trips (unless he's pitching) screams of a guy that feels he is bigger than the game and his team. I realize Roger Clemens place in history as a pitcher, and I also realize his place as an attention seeking drama queen.

Seemingly lost in the shuffle is the always great Roy Oswalt, who has established himself quite nicely as one of the top right handed starters in the league. Only once in his career has he posted an ERA+ of under 140 (and that was a 123 in 2004). With Andy Pettite's return to the bronx, that leaves the newly acquired Jason Jennings as the Astros likely #2 starter. Jennings is coming off a career year in Coors Field but it was only the first time he posted better than league average numbers. The Astros paid a steep price for him (giving up one of their top prospects) and he's a free agent following the season.

The biggest off-season addition for the Astros was left fielder Carlos Lee who signed for a substantial amount of money. I've always thought Lee was kind of overrated and I almost threw my computer out the window in a fit of rage when he signed for $100 million dollars over six years, but he should be quite a large upgrade over Preston Wilson in left field.

Still, six years for $100 million dollars? If that is what Carlos Lee is worth today, what is Jason Bay going to be worth in a couple of years? Lee is a near zero in the field and he doesn't get on base all that well. He's a great power hitter - and it should improve with the disgustingly short porch in left field - but is that alone worth $100 million?

Even so, the Wilson to Lee jump should help the Astros score more runs in 2007, which shouldn't be difficult considering they ranked 25th in the Majors in runs scored last season. That shouldn't be a surprise when you look at the numbers and see they fielded three of the worst regular position players in the leagues.

Of the 160 players who qualified for the batting title the Astros had two of the bottom five players in OPS.

156: Wily Tavares - .672
157: Adam Everett - .642

Even worse than those two was starting catcher Brad Ausmus who posted a team worst OPS of .593. Ausmus did not have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Craig Biggio continued his three year slide as he came in at 135 out of 160 with a .727 mark.

Biggio probably won't be any better, nor will the always light hitting Everett and Ausmus, but the addition of Lee - overrated as he may be - and the subtraction of Tavares - not sure who will replace him in the outfield, I assume some sort of combination of Jason Lane and Luke Scott- should be more than enough to make up for them.

The real question is will they be enough to make up for the loss of Pettite and perhaps Clemens whenever he figures out what it is he wants to do?


Adam's meaningless - and probably wrong - prediction for 2007: Should be better offensively, might be a little worse defensively, could be a lot worse from the mound if Clemens doesn't come back. All in all it looks like another 80-84 win season.


Monday, February 19, 2007

Breaking Down The NL Central: Part Two

Baseball season is almost here and all week i'll be offering my meaningless take on the five other teams in the Pirates division.

Todays Team: The Milwaukee Brewers
Last Years Record:
75-87 (Fourth place, National League Central)
Manager:
Ned Yost (Fifth season in Milwaukee)
Off-Season Additions:
Jeff Suppan (Free Agent), Johnny Estrada (Trade), Craig Counsell (Free Agent)
Projected Opening Day Starters: C: Johnny Estrada, 1B: Prince Fielder, 2B: Rickie Weeks, SS: J.J. Hardy, 3B: Corey Koskie, LF: Kevin Mench/Geoff Jenkins, CF: Bill Hall, RF: Corey Hart.

A year after ending their run of 12 consecutive losing seasons (they finished 81-81 in 2005) the Beermakers again found themselves with more losses than wins in 2006. Heading into this season they seem to have a healthy mix of potential young stars and some underrated - and already established - veterans as they attempt to have their first winning season since 1992.

The right side of the Brewers infield appears to be set for at least the next five or six years as 22 year old Prince Fielder waddles around first base while former second overall pick - and 24 year old - Rickie Weeks mans second base. Fielder completed his rookie season by belting 28 homeruns - leading all rookies - while his .831 OPS was the third best rookie mark behind Marlins teammates Josh Willingham and Hanley Ramirez. To me, Weeks doesn't appear to be as far along as Fielder is but he's still got an awful lot of talent and youth on his side. While his average and on-base percentage did improve from his rookie year, his plate discipline and power seemed to trend slightly downward. If the Brewers want to end their run of non-winning seasons, a breakout campaign from Weeks seems like a must.

Perhaps the most surprising player on last years team was Bill Hall who seemingly came out of nowhere to belt a team high 35 homeruns. Hall's numbers have trended upwards three years in a row but i'm having a hard time seeing him come close to his career year of last season. According to baseball-reference Hall's most comparable player through age 26 is Tony Batista, which doesn't seem to be all that flattering of a comparison. Sure, Batista hit a lot of homeruns in his day, but did he really do anything else? Statistically, Batista's best season came when he was 24 and posted an OPS+ of 115. He came back at 25 and put up a 112 mark and started his decline at 26 when he barely cracked the average mark of 100 despite hitting 41 homeruns during the 2000 season. Whether or not Hall follows a similar path remains to be seen - Hall seems to draw a few more walks than Batista did, which will help his cause - just comparing the two players careers at the same age.

Hall spent most of his time last season at short but according to manager Ned Yost, he will switch to Centerfield in 2007 to make room for J.J. Hardy at short.

Flanking Hall in the outfield will be Corey Hart in right and a platoon of Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins in left. Mench is the definition of "meh" and Jenkins still looks like Brett Favre, so he's got that going for him. The platoon is a much smarter move than allowing either guy to play everyday, but it's still unlikely to match the production Carlos Lee put up the past two seasons. Depending on what Hall does in Center, the Brewers outfield could be their downfall offensively.

The big splash this off-season for Milwaukee was the signing of free agent starting pitcher Jeff Suppan. The Brewers signed Suppan to a four year $42 million dollar contract. Seems like a ton of money for the Brewers of all teams to spend on a middle of the rotation starter - and it is - but with the way the crazy market is now, they certainly could have down worse. It's not like they signed Jason Marquis or Ted Lilly or something silly like that.

Of course, the staff continues to be anchored by Ben Sheets, who when healthy, is among the top pitchers in the National League. He strikes out people, he walks no one and he's logged 200 innings three times in his career. Unfortunately, he hasn't accomplished that last mark since 2004 as he's only started 39 of a possible 64 starts the past two seasons.

The always underrated Chris Capuano will round out what should be - if healthy - a formidable front three for the Brewers. In all honesty, this might be the best front three in the division.

If they're all healthy of course.

Adam's meaningless - and probably wrong - prediction for 2007: Should finish no lower than fourth in the division, could finish as high as second if everything breaks right. Then again, i've been hearing that for what seems like two years now about this team so I would kind of like to see it before I start believing it. Development of Weeks and Hardy, health of Ben Sheets and making sure Bill Hall doesn't fall very far from last seasons production will be the biggest keys in my opinion.







Sunday, February 18, 2007

Breaking Down The NL Central: Part One

Baseball season is almost here and all week i'll be offering my meaningless take on the five other teams in the Pirates division.

Today's team: The Chicago Cubs
Last years record: 66-96 (Sixth place, National League Central)
Manager: Lou Pinella (First season)
Off-Season Additions: Mark Derosa (Free agent), Neal Cotts (Trade), Ted Lilly (Free agent), Jason Marquis (Free agent), Cliff Floyd (Free agent), Alfonso Soriano (Free agent), Lou Pinella (Manager).
Projected opening day starters: C: Michael BArrett, 1B: Derek Lee, 2B: Mark Derosa, SS: Cesar Izturis, 3B: Aramis Ramirez LF: Cliff Floyd, CF: Alfonso Soriano, RF: Jaque Jones


This off-season the Cubs signed just about every free agent on the market - starting with Mark Derosa and ending with Cliff Floyd with every Alfonso Soriano and Ted Lilly in between - in an effort to escape from the cellar of the National League Central.

In 2006 the Cubs managed to field a team with a payroll exceeding $110 million and they still found themselves looking up at the Pirates, Brewers and Reds in the standings. Dusty Baker was not retained and his managerial clone, Lou Pinella, was brought in to right the ship. Pinella, who was previously in the broadcasting booth after "managing" the Devil Rays, will probably overwork his pitchers when they aren't injuring themselves in hot tubs. He's also likely to hit Jaque Jones second, which is kind of silly with the resources at his disposal, but he's sweet Lou and i'm not. So what do I know?

The result of the Cubs willingness to let General Manager Jim Hendry sign blank checks with a stamp could give the team an hilariously bad defensive outfield as Alfonso Soriano will roam center field while he is flanked by Jaque Jones and Cliff Floyds one leg in left field. Soriano had his moments in left field at RFK last season, and now he's being asked to patrol the windy wrigleyville outfield, things could get fun in a hurry.

The additions of Soriano and Floyd, combined with the returning Jaque Jones, ultimately means the guy who would probably be among the Cubs best outfielders - Matt Murton - will remain on the bench, or at most, in a platoon role with either Jones or Floyd.

Perhaps more important than any overpaid free agent the Cubs brought in this off-season, a full season from Derek Lee will be the biggest addition to the club as he only played in 50 games in 2006. I view this as more significant than a contract that is going to pay Alfonso Soriano 18 million dollars when he is 39 years old - with a full no-trade clause.

As always with the Cubs, it begins and ends with their starting pitching:

- Carlos Zambrano remains as good and insane as ever and he's even managed to escape the curse of the Cubs sore shoulder - for now. Though you have to figure his arm is hanging on by a thread at this point.

- Former second overall pick and all-everything pitcher Mark Prior managed to throw only 43 innings last season, and 5 2/3 of them came in the game I saw at Wrigley (Picture down below). Ronny Paulino took him deep, as did the rest of the National League in his few starts. Cubs still won the game and I got drunk at Murphy's. You lose some, you win some.

- Just to be sure that they didn't limit their inflated free agent contracts to aging hitters, Hendry and Co. managed to throw lavish deals upon barely league average starters such as Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Marquis was among the league leaders in home runs allowed last season - while still only striking out about four guys per nine innings - which makes a move to Wrigley all the more sensible. Lilly is also a fly ball pitcher which could result in a nice little spike in his already mediocre numbers.

- With Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Wade Miller on the staff - and Lou Pinella cracking the whip - the infamous Dr. James Andrews probably has this team right between the Pirates and Mariners in his rolodex of rotator cuffs.

Adam's meaningless - and probably wrong - prediction for 2007: If everyone stays healthy and plays like the Cubs anticipate they could take what should continue to be a weak National League Central. But as we'll see with all of these teams, everyone can say that this year. What's more likely is another disappointing season with an insanely high payroll while some of these guys slowly turn into the massive albatross' they're destined to become.









Saturday, February 17, 2007

Spring Training Begins


On Thursday Pirates pitchers and catchers reported to Bradenton, Florida and eventually began their spring workouts on Friday afternoon for the 2007 season.

This of course means it's time for lots of bunting practice, visa problems and unexplained elbow injuries.

- Tony Armas Jr and Cuban defector Serguey Linares - he of the 97 MPH fastball - remain out of camp due to visa problems.


- 2006 first round draft pick (fourth overall) Brad Lincoln has already been sidelined with an elbow injury. Granted, it's only the first day of spring training (or by now I think it's the second?) but nothing good can really come from this. Usually our first round pitchers toss a couple of strong seasons in A-AA, building our hopes and dreams of future greatness, before this starts to happen. It's nice to see Brad being proactive.

Or it could be nothing. We'll go with nothing.

- General Manager Dave Littlefield announced that 2004 first round pick Neil Walker will officially move from behind the plate to third base....... full time.

This just seems silly to me. The basis for the move is that it will allow Walker to reach the Major Leagues sooner because as of right now he is still a liability behind the plate. The fact he is a liability behind the plate shouldn't come as a surprise seeing as how he is still only 21 years old and has little catching experience above his time at Seton La Salle High School.

The move also speaks volumes about the Pirates faith in Ronny Paulino as an everyday major league catcher. I think Paulino is likely to regress offensively this year and his play behind the plate ranged from bad to....worse for much of last season.

Despite having a pretty good off-season where the Pirates actually made a real baseball trade - whether you like it or not, i'm still not sold on it, it WAS a real baseball trade with the teams best interest in mind - and even dipped a toe into the foreign talent pool, they still manage to do something like this - and bat Jason Bay fifth(!) - that makes you smack yourself in the head with an open palm.

- On the plus side, Jose Castillo is expected to report to camp 15-20 pounds lighter than he did last season. That can only be seen as a positive.

That's all I have for now. Disappointing, I know.

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Hello Again Old Friend......

Maybe you've noticed - most likely you haven't - but I haven't made a post in over a week. I don't know why, I guess I just haven't been inspired to write about anything combined with the fact i've been somewhat busy for a change. But here we are again...

Anyway, the Pittsburgh Penguins are on somewhat of a roll lately. So much of a roll that they have now gained at least one point in 13 straight games (11-0-2) now that they've defeated the hated Toronto Maple Leafs in overtime just now. They've jumped from 13th in the Eastern Conference all the way up to fourth during the streak and the playoffs not only seem like a legit possibility, but a damn near certainty.

I hope.

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Lost in all the madness of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin is the play of Marc-Andre Fleury, who has sort of taken on the roll of Tom Barrasso of the late 80's early 90's team as one of the most underated, yet most important, players on the team. And unlike Barrasso, Fleury doesn't appear to be an overwhelming jerk of a person.

That's the only comparison I will make to that early 90's team at this point. It's fun to look at the similarities, but that team won two Stanley Cups and a Presidents trophy. This team is in fourth place in the Eastern Conference on February 10th.

That's not to say even better days are ahead. Because I think they are. We just aren't there...yet.

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Right now the Penguins have three 20-goal scorers: Malkin. Jordan Staal - who had a hat trick tonight, including the game winner in overtime - and Sidney Crosby.

None of those guys are of legal age to purchase beer in the United States. Two of them are under the age of 20. One of them is "barely legal."

Not only are these three causing havoc in the league now, they are all likely to get better. And not just a little better, but perhaps a LOT better. It's amazing to think about.

Hopefully they still call Pittsburgh home when it happens.

And while it's fun to focus on the young stars, the Penguins are getting huge contributions from the lesser known role players, many of which were brought in this off-season by new General Manager Ray Shero. Mark Eaton, Dominic Moore, Ronald Petrovicky - catch that right hand tonight? - Jarkko Ruutu and even Mark Recchi who has seen some sort of miracle career re-birth at the age of 39. And you can't ignore the gritty play of Maxime Talbot, Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen. Everyone is playing incredible hockey right now.

What makes the winning even better is some of these games are amazing to watch. Granted, "excitement" always takes a back seat to actually winning the game, but when you can get both things going on like the Penguins have right now...it's just icing on the cake. It doesn't matter to me if the Penguins win every game 1-0 while each game is more boring than the last, I could care less. But the past few weeks of hockey have been nothing short of brillant from an entertainment view point and a results view point.

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- The Penguins currently trail the Division leading New Jersey Devils by eight points in the standings with four games remaining.

- Ryan Malone played an inspired game tonight, his effort was tireless and he even chipped in a garbage goal. He actually looked like he did during his rookie year when he was the best player on the team - isn't that a testament to how far this team has come in the past three seasons? - every once in a while he puts up a game like that...and other times he just seems to coast through the game. Frustrating player.

Thursday, February 01, 2007

A Night In Pittsburgh Sports

The Penguins and Canadiens just played the game of the year - so far - as the Penguins pulled out the victory in a shootout, 5-4. Marc-Andre Fleury stopped what seemed like was 240 shots while Sergei Gonchar scored two goals and added an assist. Sid added a couple of assists to his league leading point total and Eric Christiensen chipped in his 10th goal plus one to open up the shootout.

This game had everything, A 7-minute powerplay for the Pens, two shorthanded goals by the Habs, some incredible goaltending by Fleury and David Aebiescher and another slobberknocking hit by Colby Armstrong on Saku Koivu.

This team rules.

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The Pirates signed Tony Armas Jr. today as their likely fifth starter. He gets 3.5 million guaranteed - 3 million in 2007 and a 500,000 buyout - and a club option for 5 million in 2008. He's probably more likely to surprise you than Shawn Chacon and he's still only 29, which is an okay age for a starting pitcher to still get his career on track.

From what I remember of Armas coming up as a prospect he had a ton of potential, he just never discovered it. I think injuries played a role in it. So lets see what happens.

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And last but most certaintly not least, Jeff Hartings retirement seems to be official. Hartings retirement ends a run of 32 years where the Steelers only had three regular starting centers anchoring their offensive line. To me, this run is just as - if not more - impressive than the Steelers run of only two head coaches in 38 years.

To put it into some perspective, the Cleveland Browns had five starting centers this season. Three of them before the season even started.

Granted, we were treated to the occasional start from Chukki Okobi here and there and a half a season from Dermonti Dawsons back-up during the 2000 season - was there an easier job in football than Dermonti Dawsons back-up? - but as far as i'm concerned: 32 seasons. Three Centers.

Fantastic.

Hartings will never reach immortality in the Halls of Canton, Ohio with Mike Webster - or Dermonti Dawson when he finally takes his rightful place there - but he did play ten seasons in the NFL, make two Pro-Bowls, be an alternate for two others and he earned himself a Super Bowl ring last season.

And he even scored a touchdown.


I remember watching that game only because it had potential playoff implications for the Steelers. It was during the 2000 season and it was one of those situations where the Steelers needed half of the league to lose - including the Jets, who were playing the Lions that day - and win out in the remainder of their games just to have a chance at a shot for playoff hopes. And Jeff Hartings scored the only touchdown of the game to keep the Steelers slim playoff hopes alive.

Hell of a career Jeff. Lets hope we can find another center to continue the legacy.