
The past two years the winter meetings have meant relatively little to me, mainly because the Steelers were in the process of winning a lot of football games and the Pirates were a rare afterthought on my mind at that given time. Since that isn't happening this year, this should be a nice little distraction - Assuming the Pirates don't do anything stupid, which is assuming a lot.
I used to look forward to this week as the idea of my team getting new players would give me new hope for the new season.
Now it just scares the hell out of me. A quick review as to why:
Back in 2001 Dave Littlefield used the winter meetings to make one of his best moves as Pirates GM when he traded his top starting pitcher in Todd Ritchie (which was a testament to how bad that pitching staff was) to the Chicago White Sox for a trio of Right Handers - Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, and Sean Lowe.
It was one of his finest moments as a General Manager, and at the same time one of Kenny Williams worst.
Ritchie went on to have one of the worst seasons of his career for Chicago and spent the next couple of years bouncing around the league. Kip Wells on the other hand gave the Pirates two top of the rotation seasons in 2002 and 2003 before his right arm ended up falling off in the seasons to follow. None of those players remain with the Pirates today and they only have Jesse Chavez - a right handed reliever who they acquired this past summer for Wells - to show for it.
Despite all of that, it was still a fantastic trade.
Ritchie was a former first round washout with the Twins and he had signed a minor league deal with the Pirates prior to the 1999 season. He was given a chance early that year after Francisco Cordova went on the DL with another yet shoulder injury, and he ended up having a fantastic season posting an ERA+ of 131...his next two seasons were slightly below average and he never once threw more than 200 innings with the Pirates. Williams still gave up his top prospect in Wells, and two serviceable righties in Fogg and Lowe for him.
The 2002 meetings saw the Pirates bring in free agent outfielder/first basemen Matt Stairs who was one of their best hitters in '03 before leaving as a free agent the following season. Also that year the Pirates lost three players in the Major League portion of the rule 5 draft - Pitchers Chris Spurling and DJ Carrasco, and catcher Ronny Paulino.
Paulino was taken by the Royals and returned back to the Pirates before the season - he's now their starting catcher - while Carrasco and Spurling have failed to do anything of note.
2003 was the so-called "Rule 5 disaster." Personally, I thought this was a big ruckus about nothing. But for those of you that were living under a rock on Mars with your fingers in your ears and your eyes closed...the Pirates went into the meetings that year with 37 guys on their 40 man roster. Among those unprotected were Chris Shelton, Jose Bautista, and a couple other guys of little meaning.
Four of the first five players taken in the rule 5 draft were Pirates (Shelton, Frank Brooks, Rich Thompson, and Jose Bautista) which led to people climbing buildings and bridges and leaping without hesitation.
Bautista to me was a very surprising pick by Baltimore, mainly because he was still in low A-ball and missed the majority of the previous season because he broke his hand when he punched an inanimate object (I think it was a wall) in the dugout after striking out. He played for half of the league that year before ending up back with the Pirates in July as part of the Kris Benson trade.
Chris Shelton is the most well known casualty of this. Shelton barely made the Tigers roster out of spring training and there were rumors coming out of Detriot that they were set to return him to the Pirates before deciding not to at the last minute. They hid him on the roster for a while and then used an injury and resulting rehab assignment to play him in AAA for a portion of 2004. He came back in 2005 and had a strong season with an OPS+ of 131...more people began to climb buildings and blindly leap and then came 2005. For the first month and a half of the season Chris Shelton was Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez all rolled into one. No one could get him out and everything he hit was going out of the ballpark. Everyone who hadn't jumped the first two times took part in the mass suicide this time around.
And then something happened.
Chris Shelton stopped hitting. Everything.
The rest of his '06 season was so bad that he not only got dropped to 8th in the Tigers lineup, he was eventually demoted to AAA and replaced by Sean Casey in a trade from the Pirates, the very guy Pirates fans loathed because the loss of Chris Shelton forced the Pirates to trade for Sean Casey.
The Tigers already re-signed Casey this off-season and it's unlikely Shelton will play a major role on this years Tigers team. Barring injury of course.
Should the Pirates have lost Shelton? No. There is no excuse for it. Are the Pirates going to regret losing him? No.
During the 2004 meetings the Pirates swapped Leo Nunez for Benito Santiago and traded one broken down old guy (Arthur Rhodes) for a slightly better broken down old guy (Matt Lawton). Rhodes was acquired as part of the Jason Kendall trade along with Mark Redman...Lawton was a pretty solid leadoff hitter for the Bucs until he was traded to the Cubs for Jody Gerut...who has yet to be healthy.
Last year Littlefield seemed to be a little more active as he acquired Sean Casey for Dave Williams, picked Victor Santos in the rule V draft, and completed two earlier trades by bringing in Chad Blackwell from Kansas City (as part of the Mark Redman trade) and Clayton Hamilton from San Diego (As part of the David Ross trade).
Heading into this year, Littlefield has said he would like to add a right handed starting pitcher via free agency, and a left handed hitter for first base or right field through a trade. Some of the names mentioned recently for the pitching spot are Tomo Ohka, Jeff Suppan, and Tony Armas Jr.
Suppan already spent one stint with the Pirates and pitched quite well - actually it was his best season ever - the fact he has the reputation as being an "innings eater" and was nothing short of dominating late last year and through the playoffs for the Cardinals is likely to jack up his salary demands to unreasonable territory. Atleast as far as the Pirates are concerned. Chance of signing with the Bucs: Poor.
Of the options in the Pirates price range, Ohka seems to be the best option both in terms of production and money. He's actually had a very underated career and could be had for $6 or $7 million per season.
I have no idea who to expect for the hitter. There were rumors of Brad Hawpe from Colorado or Mike Jacobs from Florida. The Rockies say they won't deal Hawpe and a Florida newspaper reported that Littlefield rejected the idea of a Mike Jacobs for Chris Duffy trade. Neither name excites me all that much.
Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazette said that the Pirates had internal discussions about Adam Dunn (which would be amazing) while Aubrey Huff - who is a free agent - is a popular name to throw about among fans.
If recent history is any indication of what is going to happen we will probably end up with Ryan Klesko. Which would not be a good thing.
Complicating things even more is Littlefields reluctance to part with one of his starting pitchers in a trade. Honestly, i'm not sure I disagree with him here. The Pirates pitching depth isn't really all that it's cracked up to be and trading any of them would put a significant dent in what little they actually have, and on top of that the Pirates simply MUST develop their own starting pitchers.
So who does that leave to trade?
Mike Gonzalez.
They just re-signed Damaso Marte to an extension and they still have the frustrating - yet surprisingly decent - John Grabow from the left side. A trade of Gonzalez would set up a chain reaction in the bullpen that could possibly see the rubber armed Solomon Torres slide into the closers role and the young Matt Capps dropped into the right handed set-up role.
Outside of Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez, Gonzalez probably has the highest trade value of anyone on the Major League roster and unlike Bay and Sanchez...Gonzalez, as good as he is, would be relatively easy to replace.
Elsewhere around the leagueTheo Epstein still appears determined to trade Manny Ramirez and i'm still not sure why. The only reason that makes even the slightest bit of sense is to get out from under Ramirez' contract...which really isn't that bad anymore. Heres how the rest of it sets up for Ramirez:
2007: 18 Million
2008: 20 Million
2009: 20 Million - Option Year
2010: 20 Million - Option Year
So lets look at it this way, lets say for example the Red Sox (or whatever team trades for him) picks up both of the option years on Ramirez' contract. You're looking at 78 million dollars over four years.
Yeah, thats a lot of money. But we are in a market today where 100 million over 6 years only gets you Carlos Lee. And a market where 138 million over 8 years only gets you Alfonso Soriano. The once enourmous contract of Manny Ramirez is now a relative bargain for the Red Sox...or whoever trades for him.
The Red Sox were supposedly close to a contract with free agent outfielder JD Drew. The rumored deal?
4 Years...75 Million.
Fascinating.
Not only is Drew nowhere near the player that Ramirez is, but they are supposedly willing to pay him an almost identical amount of money to play 100 games a year before he pulls his hamstring again and sits out the next 62. It's baffling. And if you do trade Ramirez there is no way that you can get anything close to a compareable talent back in return...unless of course you trade for Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols.
Of course, this will all probably be for nothing as he'll probably stay in Boston much like he does every other time his name comes up in trade rumors. Or that time Theo Epstein tried to give him away on waivers. How stupid do all of those teams that passed on him then look now?
Ramirez is still one of the most dangerous run producers in the league and contrary to ESPN belief, is still the most important player on the Red Sox team.
- The Giants already signed Dave Roberts to a three year deal and re-signed Ray Durham to a two year deal. And they're expected to sign Rich Aurilla in the coming days. All of this is likely to leave Pedro Feliz as by far the youngest player in their opening day lineup and he is 31. God Bless Brian Sabean.
- The Cubs off-season of signing checks with a stamp looks to continue as they are reported to have made contract offers to both Ted Lilly and Jason Schmidt.